The important topics covered in the media in recent weeks have been the ceasefire negotiations with the russian federation, strengthening of Ukraine's position and the enhancement of Europe's military capabilities. The war in Ukraine has exposed the vulnerabilities of the post-Cold War security system and highlighted the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence. By providing Ukraine with the necessary military training and equipment, Europe can help ensure Ukraine's self-defence and strengthen its own defence capabilities and reduce its dependence on the United States.
In an article by Foreign Policy, the author notes that, given all the challenges, the best solution for Europe may be to adopt what is known as armed neutrality, a strategy in which Europe helps Ukraine to strengthen its military capabilities without directly involving NATO forces. The idea is that Europe, together with the UK, would provide Ukraine with the necessary training, equipment and military assistance to enable it to defend itself against future russian aggression. This would allow Ukraine to maintain a strong military deterrent, thus preserving its sovereignty and stability without escalating the conflict.
This concept is quite realistic, especially given Europe's economic and technological potential. Europe boasts several world-class arms manufacturers, such as BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Thales, which could be used to support the modernisation of the Ukrainian army. These producers, together with Europe's advanced technological and industrial base, provide a solid foundation on which a credible defence strategy for Ukraine can be built.
The key to this approach is to create a coalition of European countries that would commit to training and equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such a coalition would not only provide Ukraine with the tools it needs to defend itself, but would also help strengthen Europe's own defence capabilities, ensuring that the continent becomes less dependent on US military support.
In addition, according to Bloomberg, the United Kingdom and the European Union are negotiating to speed up the supply of weapons to Ukraine ahead of a possible ceasefire. "We want peace to prevail, but peace is achieved by force, and that means we have to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to repel any prospect of a renewed war," the British Foreign Secretary said.
For its part, Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire to achieve a just peace. President Zelenskyy expressed his sincere support for the Trump-led peace process. "We believe that together with America, with President Trump and under American leadership, we can achieve a lasting peace this year," he said in a statement. This was reported by Politico.
Ultimately, Europe needs to adopt a strategy aimed at supporting Ukraine's military capabilities. Ukraine should be prepared to negotiate with Russia, taking into account a number of strategic aspects that relate not only to military superiority, but also to economic and political factors. Being prepared to negotiate from a position of strength will allow Ukraine to reach a peaceful solution that meets its national interests.
War and peace are notoriously difficult to price. Just now they are even harder to ignore. Three years ago Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent a wave of disruption through financial markets, yanking up commodity prices, choking off gas supplies and fuelling inflation. As the conflict ground on, that wave dissipated. Now America is attempting to force a resolution to the war, investors must try to gauge the consequences of its success or failure.
The most obvious shifts have been in the markets for European assets, which investors are repricing as Donald Trump draws back and the old continent prepares to rearm.
Ukraine yielded to U.S. pressure on Tuesday and agreed to the cease-fire terms with Russia that President Trump demanded. In return the U.S. says it has restored its intelligence help to Ukraine, as Russia keeps attacking.
Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cease-fire if Russia also accepts, which is an offer Kyiv couldn’t refuse. Mr. Trump’s withdrawal of intelligence and military aid to Ukraine was costing Ukrainian lives on the battlefield. Russia was gaining ground in particular against Ukrainian positions in the Russian region of Kursk. The unfrozen American aid includes $1 billion in equipment that the Biden Administration had approved but was still in the pipeline.
President Trump said he had a “very good telephone call” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday, after Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of violating the terms of a partial cease-fire brokered by the White House a day before.
“We are very much on track,” Trump posted on his Truth Social social-media site, in apparent reference to his efforts as an intermediary between Ukraine and Russia. He said details of the one-hour phone call would soon follow.
To demonstrate the seriousness of their intentions, the allies made extensive use of strategic communication tools. In particular, they aligned themselves closely with the conclusions of the previous day's meeting in Paris of the chiefs of staff of the armies of 34 countries, including all NATO member states – except the US – under the leadership of the only two nuclear deterrent states on the European continent: France and the UK.
While the principle of sending troops to Ukraine once a ceasefire has been declared appears to be supported by a relatively large number of allies, many details remain to be discussed. "The final decision will depend on very clear conditions regarding the mission, objective and mandate" of this force, said a cautious Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans on Tuesday at the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum, an annual gathering of defense circles held alongside political meetings at the Ecole Militaire in Paris.
One idea for a European role in defending Ukraine—which French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are trying to sell—involves the creation of a force with troops provided by a subset of willing (non-U.S.) NATO countries. Alas, this proposal is even more unrealistic than NATO membership for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that a European peacekeeping force will require at least 200,000 soldiers to deter—or, failing that, foil—a future Russian invasion. But after more than three decades of prioritizing spending on economic and social programs over building up its military power, Europe lacks the ability to assemble a battle-capable army anywhere near as large as Zelensky proposes. The military-related spending of NATO’s European members has increased in recent years but, on average, as a proportion of GDP it barely budged since the late 1990s.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Ukraine saw Turkey as a partner in security guarantees for his country, and added that Kyiv was ready to ratify a free trade agreement between the states.
NATO member Turkey has balanced ties with Kyiv and Moscow since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It has maintained good ties with both, supporting Ukraine militarily and backing its territorial integrity, while refusing to join sanctions on Russia.
The UK and European Union are in talks to accelerate arms shipments to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, Britain’s foreign secretary told Bloomberg shortly before Vladimir Putin agreed to a limited truce.
David Lammy said he discussed the possibility of sending more military support to Ukraine before any broad cessation in fighting is implemented at a meeting in London with the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, Tuesday. The idea was also raised at the Group of Seven meeting of foreign ministers in Canada last week, he said.
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