For the past two weeks, Ukraine's Kursk offensive has been in the headlines of international media. During this time, the russian-Ukrainian war has changed dramatically. The invasion of the Kursk region of russia by Ukrainian troops quickly turned into the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. Therefore, it is understandable that foreign politicians and analysts have made many assumptions about how the situation will develop further, why Ukraine needs the rashist lands, how this operation was prepared, and most importantly, whether the permission to use Western weapons will be further expanded.
Foreign Policy published an article by the former Swedish Foreign Minister, in which he calls the Kursk operation a turning point in the war. The author notes that this operation demonstrated that the war is not a long and painful path to Ukraine's inevitable defeat, but is still an open case.
Now there is every reason for the West to step up its support for Ukraine. It is not about pushing the Ukrainian army to the suburbs of moscow, but about making the russian political leadership realize that it simply has no chance of winning this war.
In this situation, it is important to consider all the ways in which Ukraine's supporters can increase their support. The West could accelerate financial support, lift restrictions on the use of certain Western weapons, speed up training for F-16 pilots, be smarter about sanctions (particularly against proxies in China, India, and Turkey), and speed up the supply of Western-made ammunition, which is now gradually increasing.
According to the French newspaper Le Monde, the reaction of Western politicians and partners to the Kursk operation was positive. Most leaders expressed support and admiration for the professionalism of the Ukrainian military and called the operation a legitimate form of self-defense against moscow's aggressive war.
Earlier, there was a lot of discussion in Washington, Berlin and the media about the Kremlin's red lines, which would trigger World War III and nuclear Armageddon. One of them was the transfer of the war to russia with the use of Western weapons. The latter has already happened. The belief in escalation has led the Biden administration and some partners to severely limit both the types of weapons supplied to Ukraine and their permitted range. The Kursk operation may have demonstrated the fallacy of the "red lines" argument. Therefore, I personally hope that in the near future all restrictions on the use of Western military equipment for strikes deep into russian territory will be lifted.
In an editorial of Foreign Policy, the author argues that Ukrainian offensives into russian territory offer an opportunity to end the war sooner as part of a broader strategy of sequencing the geopolitical challenges facing the United States. Such a sequential strategy is the best option to avoid wars against China, Iran, and russia simultaneously and on multiple fronts. By providing the Ukrainians with the tools they need to consolidate and possibly build on their recent gains, Washington has a chance to help Kyiv force moscow to the negotiating table and win time for Western rearmament. But this will require the administration of US President Joe Biden to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of US weapons and to define a clear and achievable end to the conflict. Although this is risky, it is better than the alternative of drip-feeding aid to Ukraine.
Summarizing the abovementioned, I can say that Ukraine's lightning-quick invasion of russia is primarily of political importance. The loss of control over parts of russia itself is a huge disgrace for the Kremlin. The political narratives that have been built for so long in the rashist federation have been completely destroyed. In addition, the Kursk operation could significantly increase Ukraine's leverage in any potential negotiations to end the war. As long as the Ukrainian armed forces are able to hold the seized territories, a land-for-land deal is a realistic possibility, as the restoration of russia's legitimate state territory is likely to take precedence over the continued occupation of the recently seized Ukrainian territories.
Ukraine carried out cross-border raids earlier in the conflict, but the scale of the latest assault is significantly larger. Ukraine now faces a decision on whether to commit additional forces to a promising but risky incursion given the pressure Russian troops are exerting on Kyiv’s threadbare front lines in the east.
Ukrainian officials haven’t commented directly on the incursion, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that he had received “productive” reports from his military chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy.
The incursion has embarrassed Mr. Putin and made the Russian public feel more effects of the war. Russia knows the West fears escalation, and Mr. Putin has called the incursion a “large-scale provocation.” But that contradicts Russia’s domestic reassurances that the situation is under control. Russia has now declared emergencies in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions, and the acting governor of Kursk said some 180,000 Russians have been ordered to evacuate.
Ukraine has also captured Russian soldiers in Kursk, and Mr. Zelensky said this week that this “will speed up the return home of our boys and girls.”
UKRAINE’S LIGHTNING incursion into the Russian province of Kursk has exceeded the expectations of even those who planned it. On August 12th General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, claimed that his forces controlled roughly 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. “Control” may be an overstatement. But in seven days the Ukrainians have seized almost as much territory as Russia has managed, at huge cost, to take from them since the start of the year (1,175 square kilometres). In the next few days the incursion will probably culminate, as troops tire and supply lines become stretched. The question is whether Ukraine can translate short-term gains into lasting strategic advantage.
Russia was not the only country to have been caught off guard by Ukraine's incursion into its territory: Kyiv's allies also appear to have been taken by surprise. Ten days after the start of the unprecedented Ukrainian offensive in Russia's Kursk region on August 6, most are not hiding their satisfaction – albeit while showing caution and discretion.
One of Kyiv's stated objectives is to force Russia to pull troops back from the front line in Ukraine's Donbas to come to the rescue of the Kursk region. However, Ukrainian forces are not only maintaining their positions on Russian soil, but appear to be gaining ground.
Kyiv’s allies are largely withholding judgment over the Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory amid uncertainty over the ultimate goal of an operation that’s sought to redraw the map of the Kremlin’s 2 1/2-year war.
Several NATO allies have backed Ukraine’s decision to send troops into the western Kursk region — the first occupation of Russian soil since World War II — and called the operation a legitimate form of self-defense against Moscow’s war of aggression.
Some of Kyiv’s strongest backing came from eastern European NATO members. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this week that the incursion didn’t change Warsaw’s support “one iota.”
The Czech Republic will use some of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in the European Union to buy hundreds of thousands more artillery shells for Ukraine, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.
Western countries blocked about $300 billion worth of sovereign Russian assets after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
EU countries are taking the interest earned on the assets -which include bonds and other securities bought by the Russian central bank - and putting it into an EU fund to aid Ukraine as it fights the Russian invasion.
Britain's support for Ukraine remains unwavering, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday, in response to comments by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy who said London's support was weakening. Zelenskiy said at the weekend that although Britain's leadership had saved thousands of lives since the start of the war with Russia, support had recently "slowed down".
"The prime minister remains absolutely resolute in his support for Ukraine," the spokesperson said. "In terms of our support, again, it is unwavering."
Morale and determination have surged in the former, and doubts and uncertainties have increased in the latter. And Western capitals are waking up to a new reality in the war.
It’s been demonstrated that the war isn’t a long and painful road to an inevitable Ukrainian defeat—the Kremlin line that has been echoed by many in the West, including U.S. Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance—but very much an open affair.
There is now every reason for the West to intensify its support of Ukraine. It’s not a question of the Ukrainian army advancing to the suburbs of Moscow—that will clearly not happen—but to force the Russian political leadership to understand that there is simply no way in which it can win this insane war. It’s already clear that the Kursk offensive has been a turning point in the war. Whether it will be the final turning point leading to this realization in the Kremlin is the critical question ahead. It could well be.
Ukrainian offensives onto Russian soil, such as the one currently underway in the Kursk region, present an opportunity to end the war more quickly as part of a wider strategy of sequencing the United States’ geopolitical challenges. Such a sequencing strategy, as I wrote in Foreign Policy on the second day of Russia’s invasion, is the best option for avoiding wars against China, Iran, and Russia simultaneously and on multiple fronts. By giving the Ukrainians the tools they need to consolidate and perhaps build on their recent gains, Washington has a chance to help Kyiv compel Moscow to the negotiating table, buy time for the West to rearm, and allow the United States to shift attention to the Indo-Pacific.
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