Monitoring of inflation expectations, carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as a survey.
Regular surveys of economic agents, conducted by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, make it possible to assess the depth of the economic crisis in the Russian economy. The current survey provides an opportunity to assess the change in inflationary, consumer, and savings expectations/attitudes of the Russian population from January 2020 to November 2022.
The specified evaluation period provides an opportunity to consider the change in the economic mood of the population during the pandemic crisis in 2020, the short-term recovery in 2021, and the wartime crisis in 2022.
Question: how did the prices increase during the analyzed period?
One can see a significant increase in inflation perceptions in the Russian Federation during the war — from 40% to 70% of economic agents faced a notable increase in prices within the Russian Federation.
Only 2-3% of respondents felt a decrease in prices in their line of work.
Monitoring of consumer sentiments carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in a survey format.
Question: what are consumer sentiments regarding big purchases?
Consumer sentiments of the population during the war ranged from 35% to 56% when assessing the level of "a bad time for large purchases."
Monitoring of savings, carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as a survey.
Question: did you manage to save up in the last month?
Nearly 73% of respondents failed to accumulate financial savings over the last month.
Monitoring of consumer attitudes, carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as a survey.
Question: what expenses did you have to give up?
In November 2022, the share of the population that gave up repairs, buying household appliances, medical services, medicines, and cars increased compared to the average numbers for December 2021 - November 2022.
Overall, Russia's war against Ukraine had a highly negative impact on inflationary expectations and consumer attitudes of the population. At the same time, the unfolding of the social crisis in the Russian Federation is taking place rather slowly due to the use of internal reserves and hidden emissions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Summary:
In terms of the impact of the war on the economic expectations of the population, 2022 exceeded the negative changes in consumer expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.
The population in the Russian Federation mainly tends to accumulate financial reserves "for a rainy day" and significantly reduced consumer dynamics, in particular in the segment of purchasing long-term goods and real estate.
Inflation expectations are negative, albeit exchange rate expectations have somewhat improved after a critical decline toward devaluation expectations in March 2022.
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